The Trump Tax Calculator
What is Trump's second term costing you? A sourced estimate of his tariffs & trade wars, the 2026 Iran-war energy spike, inflation, and benefit cuts.
All figures are estimates built from the published sources below. Real costs vary by household. This is not a tax bill.
“But isn’t this just Biden’s inflation?” — the receipts ↓
Trump loves to claim that Democrats caused the inflation. The data disagrees — twice. Here’s what the Federal Reserve’s own numbers say, split into what’s already happened and what economists project.
1. The demand surge that drove inflation? Trump signed it first — and bigger.
Fact The Fed attributes 2.5–3 percentage points of the inflation surge to pandemic fiscal support — and the larger, earlier injection was signed by Trump in 2020. Economists Blanchard and Summers warned in early 2021 that this stacked spending would overheat the economy. SF Fed, Fed FEDS Notes, CBO.
2. After the 2025 tariffs, the Fed raised its own inflation forecast.
Fact The Fed’s own 2025 forecast jumped from 2.5% to 3.1% core PCE after the tariffs. The Fed says tariffs added +0.8% to core prices — “the entirety of excess core-goods inflation.” That’s the central bank talking, not a partisan. Fed SEP, Jun 2025, Fed FEDS Notes.
Projected And economists warn there’s more in the pipeline: a weaker dollar (−10.7% in H1 2025, worst since 1973) adds ~0.3pp to inflation, and gutting the Fed’s independence could add ~2pp through 2040. PIIE, Apollo.
3. Who ran up the debt you’re now paying $7,337/yr in interest on?
Fact Debt rose under both parties — but Trump’s first term alone added $7.8T, more than any term before it, and at his current pace his second term is on track for ~$8.7T (dashed). By the policies they actually signed, Trump’s first-term laws cost $8.4T vs. Biden’s $4.7T. Gross debt added per term, Treasury “Debt to the Penny” (inauguration to inauguration). CRFB, Treasury.
Sources & method
Each line is separately sourced and deliberately not blended. The tariff line is the direct cost of tariffs on the goods you buy — it does not include non-tariff inflation (a weaker dollar, energy shocks, supply-chain disruption), which we keep as separate lines or context so nothing is double-counted. General pre-2025 inflation and the debt share are shown as context, never added to your total.
- Tariff cost (by income, regressive): ~$900 (lower income) to ~$3,900 (top decile), ~$1,700 average. Yale Budget Lab, Nov 17 2025.
- ACA premium increase: +$1,016/yr for subsidized marketplace enrollees (2026). KFF.
- Medicaid/SNAP household loss: ~$1,200/yr (bottom-decile net). CBPP, citing CBO.
- Annual deficit share: ~$13,615/household — the FY2025 federal deficit ($1.8T) ÷ 132.2M US households. CBO/Treasury ÷ Census. The federal budget situation is structural & bipartisan — shown as context.
- Annual debt-interest share: ~$7,337/household/yr — net interest on the national debt ($970B, FY2025) ÷ 132.2M households. CBO, Peterson Foundation.
- Buying-power context: +21.4% cumulative inflation since Jan 2021 (BLS CPI-U). Shown as context only — most predates 2025 policy and isn't attributed to one administration.
- 2026 Iran-war energy: after the Feb 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, Brent peaked near $126 and EIA forecasts gasoline averaging ~$3.90/gal in 2026 (+$0.80 vs 2025) — ~$555/household on ~693 gal/yr. Easing as of mid-2026. EIA STEO, Jun 2026, ITEP tracker.
- Other Trump-driven inflation: supply-chain disruption beyond direct tariff pass-through adds ~0.3pp to CPI (~$180/household). Fed FEDS Notes, Feb 2025. Shown separately and conservatively; some economists fold this into the tariff figure.
- Tourism collapse (toggle): the US was the only country of 184 to see inbound-travel spending fall in 2025 (−$8.3B to −$12.5B), tied to immigration/border policy — ~$750 income-at-risk for a hospitality/tourism household. WTTC, US Travel Assoc.
- Dollar context: the US dollar fell ~10.7% in the first half of 2025 — its worst first half since 1973 — raising the cost of imports and overseas travel (a Europe/Japan trip ran ~8–14% more). Shown as context, not a per-household dollar figure. NY Fed FX Q1 2025, J.P. Morgan.
- Distribution: with benefit cuts + tariffs included, households below ~the top 5% net a loss while the top 10% net a gain. ITEP, CBO.